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The current data indicates a difficult reality for Microsoft. Despite integrating artificial intelligence into its flagship operating system, Copilot commands a negligible fraction of the market. Unless Microsoft deploys a significantly advanced internal model soon, they risk falling permanently behind in the AI sector.
Data from digital intelligence provider SimilarWeb reveals a stark contrast in user adoption as of January 2, 2026. While competitors surge, Copilot remains stagnant.
- ChatGPT dominates with 64.5% of the web traffic share.
- Gemini has secured a strong second place, rising to 21.5%.
- Copilot captures only 1.1%, falling behind niche competitors like Perplexity (2.0%).
This metric tracks visits to specific domains (e.g., copilot.microsoft.com). It does not account for API usage or direct application traffic, yet it serves as a reliable barometer for general consumer interest.
One Year of Stagnation
The trajectory over the last twelve months paints a concerning picture for Microsoft. In January 2025, Copilot held a 1.5% share. By January 2026, that figure dropped to 1.1%. While minor fluctuations occurred throughout the year, the net result is zero growth during a period of massive industry expansion.
Recent Traffic Volatility
Windows Latest analyzed specific growth metrics that clarify this decline. Copilot experienced a brief spike in late September 2025 (+19%). However, momentum stalled through November.
By December 2025, Copilot usage plummeted by 19%. As we enter 2026, Copilot sits in the “red zone” alongside other declining platforms, while competitors capitalize on the new year momentum.
- Gainers (Jan 2, 2026): Grok (+52%), Gemini (+49%).
- Losers (Jan 2, 2026): Perplexity (-27%), OpenAI (-22%), Copilot (-19%).
The contrast is sharpest between Copilot and Grok. In a single month, Grok gained 0.5% market share, adding a volume equivalent to nearly half of Copilot’s entire user base.
The Windows 11 “Black Box”
A common counter-argument is that Copilot users are on desktop apps, not the web. Unfortunately, verifying this is impossible. Microsoft does not publish active user data for the Copilot integration on Windows 11.
Attempts to estimate usage via the Microsoft Store are flawed.
- Review discrepancy: Copilot has 75,000+ reviews compared to ChatGPT’s 2,000.
- The Installation Bias: Copilot comes pre-installed on Windows. ChatGPT requires a manual download.
- User Intent: A pre-installed app accumulates reviews from casual discovery, whereas a manually downloaded app indicates specific user intent.
High review counts for pre-installed software rarely correlate with active daily usage.
Silence Speaks Volumes
In the technology sector, companies trumpet their successes. Microsoft frequently publicizes that Windows runs on over one billion active devices. Their refusal to release specific adoption numbers for Copilot suggests the metrics are underwhelming.
Even with Copilot integrated into the Edge sidebar—a browser with over 10% market share—adoption has not translated to the web metrics. The inference is clear: consumers have access to Copilot, but they are choosing not to use it.