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Why Are Millions Refusing to Upgrade to Windows 11 Before 2026?
Recent financial disclosures from major hardware manufacturers indicate a significant hesitation in the global shift to Windows 11. Dell Technologies has confirmed that the transition to Microsoft’s latest operating system is lagging noticeably behind historical trends. Despite the looming end-of-support for Windows 10, a vast portion of the user base remains committed to their older, functional environments.
The Stalled Transition to Windows 11
The anticipated “Year of Windows 11” in 2025 has not materialized as expected. During Dell’s recent earnings call for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, Chief Operating Officer Jeffrey Clarke revealed that adoption rates are sluggish compared to previous generations. Clarke noted that when compared to the end-of-service timeline of past operating systems, Windows 11 is currently tracking 10 to 12 percentage points behind where Windows 10 stood at the same milestone.
This data suggests that the urgency to upgrade is absent for many consumers and businesses. Unlike the migration from Windows 7 to Windows 10, which was driven by a clear need for better performance and security, the move to Windows 11 feels less essential to the average user. The current sentiment reflects a market that is content with the stability of Windows 10, viewing the upgrade not as a necessity but as an optional disruption.
Hardware Limitations and Consumer Resistance
A primary factor stalling this transition is the strict hardware requirement enforced by Microsoft. Dell estimates the total installed base of PCs at roughly 1.5 billion units globally. Within this massive ecosystem, there is a stark divide:
- 500 Million Capable but Reluctant: Approximately 500 million PCs meet the technical specifications for Windows 11 yet remain on Windows 10. These users have actively chosen not to upgrade, likely due to familiarity with the current interface or skepticism toward the new features.
- 500 Million Incompatible Devices: Another 500 million devices are simply too old—roughly four years or more—to support the new operating system.
This situation creates a “refresh cycle” bottleneck. While these aging systems represent a potential sales opportunity for manufacturers, the economic reality is that users are holding onto their devices longer. Dell projects that PC sales will remain flat in the coming year, as the compulsion to replace functioning hardware is low.
The Role of AI in Future Upgrades
Looking ahead, manufacturers are pivoting their strategy toward Artificial Intelligence to reignite interest in new hardware. Jeffrey Clarke highlighted that future growth will likely be driven by “AI PCs,” which feature specialized processors (NPUs) capable of handling small language models directly on the device. The hope is that these advanced capabilities will offer a compelling reason for users to finally abandon their older machines.
However, this is a long-term bet rather than an immediate fix. For now, the market remains in a holding pattern. Users are weighing the cost of new “AI-ready” hardware against the diminishing utility of their current setups. Until the value proposition of Windows 11 and AI integration becomes undeniable, the dominance of Windows 10 is likely to persist well into 2026.