Why are smartphone and PC prices skyrocketing in 2026 due to RAM shortages?

Should I buy a new laptop now or wait for memory prices to drop in 2027?

Recent market data indicates a severe contraction in the global personal computing and mobile sectors. The International Data Corporation (IDC) reports that consumers will face significantly higher prices and reduced availability for devices throughout 2026. This analysis breaks down the economic factors driving these changes and offers strategic context for buyers and businesses.

The Root Cause: AI Infrastructure Displacement

The primary driver of current hardware inflation is the aggressive expansion of Artificial Intelligence data centers.

Production Shift

Semiconductor manufacturers have pivoted production lines to prioritize High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). This specialized memory powers the GPUs used in AI training, offering manufacturers significantly higher profit margins than standard consumer RAM.

Supply Scarcity

As factories retool for AI components, the production capacity for standard DDR4, DDR5, and SSD storage shrinks.

Cloud Inflation

The CEO of OVHcloud projected these constraints in 2025, noting that cloud service costs would rise by 5-10% in 2026. Furthermore, procurement costs for server hardware have surged by 15-35% compared to late 2025.

Impact on the Smartphone Market

The mobile sector faces a dual challenge of rising Bill of Materials (BOM) costs and shrinking consumer purchasing power. Memory components typically constitute 15-20% of a mid-range phone’s total manufacturing cost.

Vulnerability by Segment

• Budget & Mid-Range (Android): Brands operating on thin margins—such as Xiaomi, Realme, and Transsion—absorb the hardest hit. They cannot absorb the rising cost of RAM and must pass these increases directly to the consumer. IDC predicts this will dampen global sales volume significantly.
• Premium & Flagship (Apple/Samsung): Tier-one manufacturers possess greater resilience due to long-term supply contracts secured 12-24 months in advance. However, consumers should expect stagnation in specifications. Flagship models released in 2026 will likely retain 12GB of RAM rather than upgrading to 16GB, and the traditional price drops for older models will not occur.

Market Projections

• Sales Volume: A decline of 2.9% to 5.2%.
• Consumer Pricing: An increase of 3% to 8%, depending on supply chain severity.

Impact on the PC Industry

The computer market faces a “perfect storm” scenario in 2026. The crisis hits exactly as the industry attempts to transition users from Windows 10 to Windows 11.

The Compatibility Conflict

• Hardware Requirements: Windows 10 end-of-life pushes users toward Windows 11, which demands higher system resources. Simultaneously, the push for “AI PCs” (such as Microsoft Copilot+ devices) establishes a 16GB RAM floor, with 32GB becoming the recommended standard for high-end workflows.
• Cost Prohibitive Upgrades: Meeting these new memory standards is currently cost-prohibitive. Major vendors including Dell, HP, and Lenovo have signaled price hikes of 15-20%.
• Market Distortion: Smaller PC vendors who lack bulk purchasing power face critical supply shortages. This consolidation limits consumer choice and further drives up average selling prices (ASPs).

Market Projections

• Sales Volume: A sharp decline between 4.9% and 8.9%.
• Consumer Pricing: Average prices are expected to rise between 4% and 8%.

Advisory Outlook

The intersection of AI infrastructure growth and consumer hardware cycles has created a seller’s market for components.

1. Asset Management: Businesses should extend the lifecycle of existing hardware where possible.
2. Procurement Strategy: If purchasing is necessary, secure inventory immediately. Prices are projected to climb through the end of 2026 before supply chains stabilize potentially in 2027.
3. Expectation Management: Consumers must adjust expectations; entry-level prices will rise, and mid-cycle specification upgrades will be rare this year.