Discover an example of a probabilistic calculation from the IBM Artificial Intelligence Fundamentals certification exam. Learn why “A 78% chance of being wrong” represents probabilistic reasoning.
Table of Contents
Question
Which of the following is an example of a probabilistic calculation?
A. A strong feeling you are most likely correct
B. A 78% chance of being wrong
C. An unreliable calculation
D. Wording that is probably correct
Answer
B. A 78% chance of being wrong
Explanation
A probabilistic calculation results in an answer that can be quantified.
This option represents a quantifiable likelihood or probability, which is a fundamental aspect of probabilistic calculations. These calculations are used to express the chance of a particular event occurring and are often represented as percentages or probabilities between 0 and 1.
A probabilistic calculation involves quantifying uncertainty by assigning probabilities or likelihood to different possible outcomes. It’s a way of reasoning about situations where the outcome is not certain, but we can estimate the chances of different possibilities.
The key aspects of a probabilistic calculation are:
- It assigns a specific numerical probability (like 78%) rather than a vague qualitative assessment.
- The probabilities of all possible outcomes add up to 100%.
- It focuses on the likelihood of things being true or events occurring, not on the degree of confidence in a statement.
Looking at the answer choices:
A) “A strong feeling you are most likely correct” does not provide a quantified probability and focuses on confidence in correctness rather than likelihood.
B) “A 78% chance of being wrong” gives a specific probability for an outcome, making it a clear example of a probabilistic calculation.
C) “An unreliable calculation” focuses on the quality of the calculation, not the probabilistic nature of the reasoning.
D) “Wording that is probably correct” uses the term “probably” qualitatively rather than quantifying the probability.
Therefore, B is the only answer choice that demonstrates the key features of assigning a numerical probability to a specific possible outcome, making it the correct example of a probabilistic calculation.
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